Clay shooting - The future

[jake.keeling]

The New Double Trap is a bit tasty also, we had experienced shooters hitting less than 50% in our championship last weekend! The trouble is it doesn't look hard where as OT does.


http://www.tirovesti.co.uk/

 

[Darkside]

Just thought about the classification cut off points,

OT            A class +86.6% D class -77.7%

OSK         A class +89.9% D class -71.5%

FITASC    A class +84.4% D class -70.7%

DT           A class +76.6% D class -51.2%

DT could be distorted by how few shoot it, certinly how few get the opertunity to shoot and practice it to a high level. I would say OT is certinly not the 'hardest' clay discipline to shoot...

 

[Will Hewland]

Just thought about the classification cut off points,

OT A class +86.6% D class -77.7%

OSK A class +89.9% D class -71.5%

FITASC A class +84.4% D class -70.7%

DT A class +76.6% D class -51.2%

DT could be distorted by how few shoot it, certinly how few get the opertunity to shoot and practice it to a high level. I would say OT is certinly not the 'hardest' clay discipline to shoot...

Edit. Deleted, on the basis I was talking cobblers..

 

[ips]

I have done that clever sometimes didnt delete in time though

 

[ips]

And if you look at abt it is not far off same as ot now considering more reg targets are shot at abt than ot what does that tell up statistically.

Over to you jwp

 

[Les53]

Les, in what context do you say "it's the hardest of all clay disciplines"? I would argue that ABT is "harder", as in it is compleatly random without a computer program to give everyone the same 100 clays, each peg has a different hold point requirment, unlike OT where the hold point is the same each peg...

OSK is another candidate for being harder...some people can just never adjust to shooting gun down at very fast crossing targets, with doubles thrown into the mix, with only one shot per clay...how many OT pairs do you get per round?

The mixture of skills, memory bank of angles/leed pictures/wind affected calculations and mental stamina required to win at a shoot like the GB FITASC shoot held at Westfield, with 136 different target presentations is far,far more complex than 5 pegs of fast, going away clays, all with a centeral hold point, repeated over and over?!?!

I'm not a "trap" shooter, I have shot very little registered DTL or  ABT only shot 'competitive' OT once at a charity A/R shoot, 21 ex 25, I have shot 25 DTL, 25 ABT and 25 OT as practice a few times on a wednesday night @ North Ayrshire practice (usualy because it's wet and the trap ranges at NA are covered!) I always find ABT to be the harder of the trap disciplines!!! I've shot a round of OSK or two with the boys who shoot it...there is no second barrel, the 3 second delay takes some getting used to, not easy, less so with a 32" sporter, esp if you've got 1/2 1/2 choke in (was too lazy to change).

OK right here we go! Yes you are quite correct with your view of ABT, however ABT does not have different schemes, from layout to layout at OT you just don't know what scheme you are going to get!  ABT now also has angles of up to 32.5deg against OT which still has 45deg, so a spread of 65deg for ABT against 90deg for OT, but distances are now about equal as far as I know (up to approx 75mtrs if I remember correctly. Looking at the scores from OT events against ABT events shows quite a difference. I do however see where you are coming from with your view of OT and ABT mate!!! :yes:

PS. I still as yet have not shot that new fangled Ball Trap, I still remember the old one, where we used to shoot in an arc!!! The good old days!!!!

 

[ips]

This could run mate. Its a difficult one to decide on my head tells me one thing my scores tell me another. There both bleeding hard end of.

 

[jwpzx9r]

I think there has to be a measure of uncertainty between OT and ABT because the statistics are much easier to calculate for OT. If for example you take a sample of 100 people shooting  20 rounds each of OT you are comparing apples with apples so to speak because as we know the have shot the same targets. With ABT well you shoot what goes out in front of you from the trap because there is not prog you could say that the sample is more random because the trap is not programmed to throw the same targets for all competitors but and here is the clincher for me anyway you cannot say it is more difficult it could in fact be easier simply down to where the shooter is standing. If you imagine getting 5 hard right targets from station 1 and 5 hard left from 5 that's ten straight a way's, yes you have to swing your gun but it is a straight target there after, get to peg three you could get another two or three straight a way's in the round you get my drift, you only get 5 in OT. It would be easy to say ABT is/could be more difficult but hey presto you could get unbelievably favourable targets. I have felt this has happened to me when I have scored well but I could be wrong. Now I will justify my reasoning by saying  I would rather a hard right from an ABT trap on peg 1 than a hard right at OT. Just my unqualified opinion, NIc will know more

 

[ips]

Interesting, surely over a large enough sample the targets at abt even out in other words if you shoot 100 targets that are random what would the probability of them all being straight or all being hard i would think that on the basis of probability they would even out somewhat but what do i know. If we forget the random aspect and just look at the statistics regarding the percentage cut off for A class in both disciplines being quite close and what if anything can we conclude from the fact that more people and more targets are shot at abt. I know this is probably not that scientific as there are obey other factors such as generally only shooters with the ability bother with ot but lets be hypothetical and assume a level playing field with regards to talent.

And over to john our tame analyst

 

[Darkside]

What angle is an extreme right ABT clay from peg 1...the extreme right from peg 1 and e trend left from peg 5 seem harder than any of the clays in OT...or maybe it's just an illusion!?!?

 

[Wonko the Sane]

Presuming the field setting for ABT is at the machine then any shooting offset from the centerline of sta 3 and the machine increases the angle by however the offset amounts to.  I think the circular stations were 20+deg so you're back at 90deg +/-.  The straight station layout may make that even larger but w/out comparing the two it would be hard to say.

 

[ips]

I think it is now 32.5 degrees from peg 3 what that equates to at peg 1 i have no idea, and remember that the height has increased also so were taking springing teal. Obviously the comparison to ot depends on the set scheme.

 

[jwpzx9r]

The problem as I see it anyway with ABT is that the very randomness if you will makes it even more difficult to get any meaningful data. It would take an extra ordinary number of clays thrown to get a fair distribution of the figures. Take two shooters at ABT and I am only taking as an example basically because it could happen and how  easily a shooter could get easier targets though in theory they are the same. From peg five they both get for whatever reason get 5 hard left to right targets at peg three the both get for whatever reason 5 hard left rights, the other targets are more or less equally split  5 left , 5 right and five down the middle. Now shooter 1 is left-handed how would those transfer as averages? Some may disagree but surely amongst normal mortals the lefthander is favoured considerable here? In OT the splits would favour neither shooter they are exactly the same 25! Of course you could make a case for the ABT making it more difficult and it will happen. That in my opinion is why it is  too easy to say ABT is/could be more difficult its just too variable, it could by coincidence be incredibly hard or easy by equal measure whereas OT is constant... that is why the choose it an Olympic format ! But as a last comment just because ABT throws what is thought to be random targets that most definitely does not mean that the target will turn out to be fair in terms difficulty because of the relationship between the shooters peg and the thrown target, OT on the other hand is totally fair. It is intriguing though you would need a good statistician to get to the root of this. Where I worked we did have such beasts they just sat and crunched numbers all day!

 

[Les53]

In theory at abt it is possible for an individual to get all hard or all easy targets,at OT everyone gets the same targets of course! At abt you can change your hold position to favour the hard target from a particular peg without compromising the easier target, to try such a thing at OT is suicide. In other words if you feel the hard right is the hardest target and you were to set up for that,you could end up getting a hard left and you would be way off being able get to it easily!

 

[ips]

My interest here is the statistics assuming the ability of OT versus ABT shooters is the same.

The percentage cutoff for lets say B class is 81.6 % OT and 83.2% ABT so in reality that's less than 2 targets per 100 comp. Now the amount of reg shooters in that class in the last book was 94 OT and 198 ABT so does the fact that more people shot ABT make any difference statistically to the percentage outcome. Look at it this way if the 198 ABT shooters took up OT for a season would the % cutoff come down because more people shot it and more people turned out good at it. I suspect that it would and I suspect that if the same number of shooters shot OT as they do ABT that the ABT would be statistically harder assuming that the targets were set to correct levels and not stupid.

 

[ips]

In theory at abt it is possible for an individual to get all hard or all easy targets,at OT everyone gets the same targets of course! At abt you can change your hold position to favour the hard target from a particular peg without compromising the easier target, to try such a thing at OT is suicide. In other words if you feel the hard right is the hardest target and you were to set up for that,you could end up getting a hard left and you would be way off being able get to it easily!

I think that over 100 targets the random nature of ABT levels out. Over 25 its possible to have one shooter get easier targets but on the basis of probability over 100 not so.

 

[Salopian]

" I had a dream, that clayshooting would continue and give my children as much pleasure as it has given me in my lifetime ."

 Then I woke up checked my mail read my PULL and realised the dream was over .

Unless we ditch the current Board and the CEO, in my opinion Clay Shooting is on a downward spiral.

 

[jwpzx9r]

My interest here is the statistics assuming the ability of OT versus ABT shooters is the same.

The percentage cutoff for lets say B class is 81.6 % OT and 83.2% ABT so in reality that's less than 2 targets per 100 comp. Now the amount of reg shooters in that class in the last book was 94 OT and 198 ABT so does the fact that more people shot ABT make any difference statistically to the percentage outcome. Look at it this way if the 198 ABT shooters took up OT for a season would the % cutoff come down because more people shot it and more people turned out good at it. I suspect that it would and I suspect that if the same number of shooters shot OT as they do ABT that the ABT would be statistically harder assuming that the targets were set to correct levels and not stupid.

I don't know the exact angles that an ABT trap throws but to my way of thinking there is a probability that because of the change of position of the shooter it is possible to get a favourable target from what should be a difficult angle from the trap. I also don't know the degree of actual randomness of the trap and that although it sounds daft it is in fact not because it will not be totally random there will be a pattern in there, there always is things are never as random as they seem and the only way of checking is to note every target thrown for angle and trajectory to find out the pattern or sequence if you will. But as a recent newcomer to both ABT and OT I am amazed at the number of what are essentially straight targets thrown by an ABT trap because of my position in the line at the time of throwing, yes we know it is to the left or right but once the gun is on line it is straight. You just don't get this in OT because of the way its set up it is either left or right and a down the middle and totally fair to all who shoot. I think also that when you look at the stats for OT and ABT you must take into account the availability of each format and factor in the amount of time a person may be able to practice such a format. What I am saying is for me for example I could shoot an equal amount of both disciplines so when shooting registered targets you would be able to compare targets hit percentage on the basis I shoot the same amount of practice targets for each. Whereas there could be an unevenness of practice leading to the conclusion it would not be fair or comparable to regard the stats for registered targets as meaningful for this reason. I will say this " it makes you think" Finally in my view you can't compare the cut offs for the disciplines with a view to degree of difficulty as has been said you could be comparing poorer shots with better. What you need is someone who shoots both equally in practice and on registered, but then you may just be measuring their preference for one discipline over another?

 

[Jan Powell]

Agreed i'm afraid. As i've said before, the silent majority will still be telling us they 'just want to shoot' as the key is turned in the lock.

 

[Les53]

I think that over 100 targets the random nature of ABT levels out. Over 25 its possible to have one shooter get easier targets but on the basis of probability over 100 not so.

I take your point pal,after all you have shot the new fangled abt and I only shot the old ball trap ;-)