Just a Quickie

[Wonko the Sane]

I have no way to judge how accurate and/or up to date the news here is regarding the situation in the UK.  But what I do see is not really making me happy.  I'm hoping the best for all of you even tho it looks fairly bleak at the moment.

Here in the US the sh*te is just getting a good start.  The OrangeClown is desperate to be at the forefront of anything and as a consequence continually reminds anyone with a brain that his incompetence is the basic element that crippled the in-place system to start with and delayed what came into action.  

so, anyway

My wife and I are sorta hiding out and doing OK so far.  My Bro and his wife in Arizona are doing the same.   Please, you all take cover as well so we can hopefully all still be here when the dust settles.

be smart be safe   :victory:

Charlie

 

[Westward]

Early days but the signs are the rate of new infections is slowing.The numbers dying, awful though it is for them and their loved ones, aren't as important statistically since they are already infected and the fatality rate follows the infection rate by a week or so.

Mr Trump's cavalier attitude must be worrying for Americans as he doesn't seem to be listening to the experts, unlike Boris and Co who have consistently accepted professional advice.

 

[ColinD]

Trump needs to have a look at the UK governments daily breifings to see how it should be done.

Listen to the experts and stop thinking about his bloody ego

 

[TheSherriff70]

It’s not right over here either.....

They say it’s test, test ,test...... but the figures don’t add up. We are only testing those that are seriously ill in hospital, at a rate of 8k a day.....yet after all this time we only have 25k cases? Wtf?

The number of confirmed cases went up By 3k today, so are you really telling me that the other 5k tested, that are seriously ill in hospital with symptoms, just happen to have something else? 
At the expected mortality rate of 2%, with 1800 dead, we should have a predicted 100,000 cases, give or take .

This evening. I was very sad to hear that a 13 yr old boy had died of it. I naively thought the kids were safe. He is the same age as my youngest.
We are in for a rough ride; stay safe, and keep your families safe. 
 

 

[Luke_(NL)]

Sorry to hear about the situation in the UK, am I right in understanding that there is a general quarantaine order for the elderly and infirm?

Here in the Netherlands the situation is similar to the orders for your general population: Only testing those admitted with symptoms, with exceptions for health care staff who are being tested given their exposure to the confirmed patients. Crossed the 1K of deceased yesterday, no telling where it'll end. At least the government takes its cues from experts, although not everyone agrees on what is best (and who knows, really?). So for now all schools, daycare, bars, pubs, restaurants and the like, as well as all sportclubs and similar recreational facilities are all shuttered until the start of May with no guarantees that won't be extended. I'm doing my part working from home, and sticking to the general plan. Mrs. Luke works in the hospital, so some worries there but glad to be contributing towards a solution (or at least nibbling away at the consequences).

As for the US, very sorry to hear about all that's going on there. Given the prevalence of plus-size inhabitants there are possibly more severe cases to start (research here indicates obesity is a contributing factor in a large number of IC-patients) and as for the state-level race for resources and the federal policy at large, I can only shudder at the possible consequences. 

On a brighter note, there is a Dutch-American vaccine research company nearby that have announced 'positive results' in animal trials of a 'prime candidate' for a vaccine. We can only hope. Stay healthy everyone.   

 

[Westward]

 am I right in understanding that there is a general quarantaine order for the elderly and infirm?

Elderly people such as myself and Mrs W have not been instructed to isolate as we don't have any adverse health conditions but I think about 1.5 million people considered to be at risk have been contacted and told to isolate.

My concern is that many people - including several that I know personally - are ignoring government advice about social distancing, visiting friends and family etc.

Also, it's still worth remembering that 2 years ago when the flu vaccine didn't work properly, around 16,000 people in the UK died from seasonal flu.

 

[Wonko the Sane]

Obviously the government's response anywhere is The deciding factor.  Which of course means that the US is fooked.  The OrangeClown is certainly a mental defective, a common criminal, likely a traitor and one of the most repellent/repulsive creatures I recall on the US political scene and we've had some notables!  His owners and cohorts are much the same and his followers defy a rationality that is meager at the best of times in the US right wing. I don't know why any of you would willfully expose yourself to the discussion but for the morbid

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/presidents-character-unequal-task/608743/

I do hope that my feeling of impending doom is more imagined than real - - - 

sorry to have deflected this to the slimeball

Charlie

 

[McTrucky]

What I am struggling with is what happens next.  We don't just damp the virus down for a few months then return to normal.  Let's say a country has a population of 50 million, 10% get the disease (5 million), 1% of them die (50,000).  If we then lift restriction and the virus has not been eradicated, then the other 90% of the population are now liable to contract the disease.

So we either eradicate the virus globally, or we eradicate it regionally and close borders, or we manage it through inoculation (which is not yet an option), or we go through waves of controlled spreading to keep numbers of the sick manageable while allowing the virus to become established as a background bug we all become relatively resilient to.

One way to keep numbers manageable would be to gradually lift restriction's geographically within a country, thus allowing the virus to gradually spread and keep the number of seriously ill below what can be coped with.

Sorry, I appreciate that doesn't make for pleasant reading, but the greater personal responsibility we all take, the more accurate modelling can be and the better the outcomes will be.

Take care everyone.  We can all shoot again when we get through this.

 

[Wonko the Sane]

I suspect that until the vaccine appears the virus will persist for no other reason than there is and will not be any overall coordinated scheme to beat it down.  A functional therapy for the infected and a vaccine are really the best that can be hoped for and neither look to be happening next week.

JMO of course

be smart be safe

Charlie

 

[TheSherriff70]

Keep the lockdown until the new cases stop. At that point you can do a partial release and then see if anything flares up. You then lockdown smaller areas. Repeat until A. Everybody has had it. B. The flare ups get smaller. C. We find a vaccine.

The bit that people still need to understand is that your actions today won’t bring results for 3 weeks.

So, what were you doing 3 weeks ago?

Easter weekend is supposed to be the crucial time......

My good lady lost a work colleague yesterday. Early 50’s, lady who was fit and healthy. 
Two of my team have had it, and are absolutely exhausted still.....3 weeks on.

Stay safe everybody.

 

[Wonko the Sane]

I don't know how long the tunnel is but here is a light

https://www.wsj.com/articles/johnson-johnson-to-begin-human-trials-on-covid-19-vaccine-by-september-11585569380

googling the topic will show a real pile of links on this.  I saw the CEO of J-J on the tele talking about this and he said that they were prepping a production line and would a few million doses on hand by the time it was approved and that they were so convinced of the potential that they were were not concerned about starting now.

 

[ColinD]

With the idiot whos standing behind him I'd take this info with a large pinch of salt personally

Stephen Hahn said the agency will test chloroquine, an antimalarial drug, as a coronavirus treatment. The drug could serve as an intermediate therapy before a vaccine becomes available. Photo: Evan Vucci/Associated Press

 

[El Spavo]

I suspect that until the vaccine appears the virus will persist for no other reason than there is and will not be any overall coordinated scheme to beat it down.  A functional therapy for the infected and a vaccine are really the best that can be hoped for and neither look to be happening next week.

JMO of course

be smart be safe

Charlie

Exactly what I would suspect and was gonna write. Coronavirus is just the umbrella term for a group of existing viruses, not this specific one, so this'll probably just add to the list and sit alongside good old fashioned flu and the common cold, at some point I'd think. We'll just be able to treat it in the somewhere future, hopefully.

Until the next strain comes along. Wash, rinse, repeat.