As a newbie i shot Sporting, Skeet, DTL and ABT because it was the only stuff at the club.
Very few newbies start off and say...'right.....I am going to shoot 'X' discipline until I make the England team.
But that was the original question which discipline should a newbie take up with a view to excelling for that reason and only that reason the answer is the one with the fewest participants.. the newbie is going to have fewer people to be better than... ability has to be assumed, you can't know they have never shot before! But see post 59 ! The original post was, I think, in the main theoretical and designed to stimulate a debate and it did! But the answers can only be based on theory and stats because the abilities of the newbie are unknown, so one assumes they will progress according to the normal curve for the discipline and that the fewer competitors you face the more chance you have of winning.