Easiest discipline to attain a top class the quickest

[RobertBeard]

Oooh nasty - that's below the belt! 

 

[jwpzx9r]

This is most interesting.

Your statistical theory may be correct to a degree however what if in a particular discipline few participate but they are better quality shooters than another which has more participants ? Would that make a difference i wonder ?

Not for to answer the question originally posted. And by posing that question you start comparing apples and oranges. If you take two or more disciplines with a varying number of participants the number of participants will create the echelon it must. For an example, and I am using very vague figures because I don't know the stats, take a sample of the top 50k DTL shooters that may throw up possibly 100 potential actual winners and 1000 OT trap shooters throwing up 20 potential actual winners. It is statistically still going to be easier to win at OT there are fewer competitors, you cannot compare one with the other they are different disciplines and you can't say the new shooter won't be able to aspire to the winning of one or the other for the reason you do not know what his/her potential is! If he/she only wants to excel he/she must compete where they have the greatest statistical chance of winning, now that is , in my view answering the original question. The only way that could vary is if you KNOW the new shooter is better at one discipline over the other!

Edit

Ian

 I could put this question to you. A new shooter is going to take up a shooting discipline to achieve excellence which should they pursue ? The answer has to be the one which has the fewest competitors purely because you have no idea how good they are going to eventually be, but you have to assume that all things being equal the less people you compete against the more chance you have of winning it is that simple.  But thank goodness that is not how people arrive at their chosen discipline most do it because they enjoy it and want to get better at it.

 

[ips]

That makes sense. Fewer participants better chance of doing well but as you say obviously depends on the shooters ability and suitability to the discipline. So we should all shoot helice

 

[** Pending Removal **]

Not going to disagree with anything you have said but you have I think possibly misinterpreted the question which was which discipline would a new shooter be the easiest to achieve excellence. The answer to that question can only be the discipline with he fewest participants. For the following reasons A) nobody knows how good that shooter could become and the more participants already taking part in that discipline have the potential to be at least as bad, good or better than the new shooter may become statistically, I put the emphasis on better here because its not a random sample all the participants are striving for the same out come. That is the only answer. You are right in many ways but I don't think that was the answer to the question. The only answer is the discipline with the lowest number of shooters already taking part, as you already know no one person wins all the competitions and therefore its not a matter of beating the best but the best on the day therefore in a competition with more potential winners there is less likelihood of winning purely statistically. Its not really a question of the conceptual difficulty more how many actually are competing. In short if you enter a discipline with only 50 competitors you have only fifty to better if you enter one with 50,000 you have a one thousand fold factor against one over the other, all other things being equal. Yes you have to beat the best on the day but one discipline will have more people at the top of the echelon than the other the ratio might be the same but the numbers would be vastly different.

Nope....I understood and answered the question thank you..with the added experience of having been a newbie....who made the international teams in 2 Fitasc disciplines. No matter how many play your game, you have to end up in the top 3 whether that is seniors, juniors, ladies, vets or super vets. It matters not if it is 50,000 or 50....'you'....have to end up in the 1st 3 because of your scores in the selection shoots.

True story...!

 

[jwpzx9r]

That makes sense. Fewer participants better chance of doing well but as you say obviously depends on the shooters ability and suitability to the discipline. So we should all shoot helice

Well theoretically if you really wanted to be at the top of the tree you would adopt the discipline where there are fewer people standing in your way, that is a complete no brain fact!  I am saying here that the ease or otherwise of the discipline is not a factor in choosing the discipline. If you choose one with 100 participants you stand a much better chance of reaching the top over a discipline with 50 or 100k participants and there after its your ability that dictates the outcome. As a final comment I think you have definitely made the very important point in bold because the original question does not take into account the potential or preferences of the newbie shooter.

 

[Jan Powell]

Without a doubt skeet (and I say this as someone that shoots both skeet and trap). Skeet is all about mechanical repetition. Once the fundamentals are mastered it's just a case of repeating it over and over again. However, as we all know, getting to AA class isn't that difficult, shooting 100s week in, week out is.

 

[** Pending Removal **]

That makes sense. Fewer participants better chance of doing well but as you say obviously depends on the shooters ability and suitability to the discipline. So we should all shoot helice

No ....double trap....there are less than 25 :wink:

What cocks the whole 'theory' job up is that several people shoot several disciplines even as a newbie.....by the time a newbie is a contender....they could have changed disciplines.

VaV .....George.....Richard....Amber.....lots.

As a newbie i shot Sporting, Skeet, DTL and ABT because it was the only stuff at the club.

Very few newbies start off and say...'right.....I am going to shoot 'X' discipline until I make the England team.

And according to the 10,000 hour rule....living close to your practice facility increases your chance of succeeding. Natural talent or aptitude only takes you so far....hard work and time takes you the rest of the way.

.....just saying..!

 

[jwpzx9r]

Nope....I understood and answered the question thank you..with the added experience of having been a newbie....who made the international teams in 2 Fitasc disciplines. No matter how many play your game, you have to end up in the top 3 whether that is seniors, juniors, ladies, vets or super vets. It matters not if it is 50,000 or 50....'you'....have to end up in the 1st 3 because of your scores in the selection shoots.

True story...!

No sorry you may well have done this but statistically if you were new to a sport and wanted to choose a discipline in which you wished to reach the pinnacle you would choose the one with the fewest participants. Taking this to a silly but none the less relevant extreme if you chose a discipline with 1k competitors over another with 100k thousand and assuming normal distribution curves for the degree of competence you have a much better chance reaching the top in the discipline with the 1k competitors.

 

[Hamster]

 A) nobody knows how good that shooter could become and  the more participants already taking part in that discipline have the potential to be at least as bad, good or better than the new shooter may become statistically,

Excellent powers of reason and observation  I think you're onto a very valid point regarding numbers of participants and therefore the simple statistical probabilities all other things being equal. It is indeed a no brainer that ending up say in the top three out of 50 is statistically more probable than out of 500, a very easy concept to grasp.

 

[** Pending Removal **]

Well I suppose you are entitled to a view but I am afraid I have to agree to disagree.

i can only talk from experience...my first cap was Fitasc sporting......

 

[maddmatt]

But the topic said, easiest to achieve top class in, therefore its DTL, in terms of a) time to learn, B) ease to shoot, and c) ability to a big orange going away target.

Skeet is definitley a close second it does unfortunately require teaching the student the principal of forward allowance, ranging from going away targets, quartering targets and crossers, therefore DTL wins again... IMO, just saying

 

[** Pending Removal **]

10,000 hours, christ ive got some catching up to do

:wink: not familiar with the 10,000 hour rule? :wink: it applies across many things from sport to music to Internet founders....etc etc...just saying

 

[jwpzx9r]

But the topic said, easiest to achieve top class in, therefore its DTL, in terms of a) time to learn, B) ease to shoot, and c) ability to a big orange going away target.

Skeet is definitley a close second it does unfortunately require teaching the student the principal of forward allowance, ranging from going away targets, quartering targets and crossers, therefore DTL wins again... IMO, just saying

Actually that was an edited the original called for the newbie to "excel". And your analysis completely ignores the fact that regardless of ease the fact is you are competing against many more shooters in DTL and further take in to account you have no idea of the newbies potential. I am going on the basis that I would far rather compete against 50 than 1000 ability and dedication would then dictate the eventual outcome.

 

[Hamster]

This is a very interesting question and one which realistically you can't answer emphatically given the sheer number of variables and unknowns but IF:

We assume a number of equal values and characteristics such as the shooter being of at least above average attributes (hand and eye co-ordinaton, visual acuity, desire, killer instinct, will, mental strength, etc, etc) useful to attaining say top 20 status in their discipline AND having the time and ability to fire around 40k + shots per annum then I think Sporting is the easiest to potentially become a top runner at. This also assumes equal participant numbers across all disciplines.

My reasoning is that for a start there are simply far more opportunities and access to grounds offering this, initially at least there will be a lot more easy access to useful, meaningful advice from already good shooters, with no hint of malice it would also be more likely that your average person would find it easier to get out of bed 4 or 5 times a week and motivate themselves to go out and practice ESP. 

The killer with the Trap and Skeet games is concentration, personally I think ESP doesn't need concentration in quite the same way as the former mentioned games, you just can't luck into a 299X300 or 150 straight at Skeet for an outright win. You very much can win at ESP though when others aren't quite at their peak, many a shooter will know the feeling of a win when he would not have himself felt as though he had shot exceptionally. ESP is a game full of flaws, this I believe would statistically mean there is a greater chance of reaching near the top. You don't have to be blessed with super human concentration in other words.

 

[Hamster]

Just a naughty thought, we ought to edit the original post to differentiate between male and female ?! Again with no hint of malice but statistically it must be harder to win a team place at say ESP given the colossal number of top flight male participants compared to their female counterparts? Am I having a blank stare moment or would reaching the top in any discipline be statistically easier due to their reduced participation ? Genuine question.

 

[jwpzx9r]

To Be fair Hamster to answer the original question which actually involved a newbie excelling at a discipline I did not even factor in facilities and difficulty. I went on the basis that the fewer participants the more chance of winning everything else being equal. I think you have to look at this from the outside not the inside and also form a view point of a person who is totally new to shooting. They have no preconceived ideas they don't know how to shoot the are just starting, the fewer people they are up against the more chance the have of excelling... everything else being equal. Now don't get me wrong a good coach is going to be able to say almost straight off you would be better of in this discipline that involves ability, but to answer the original question I assumed they would progress at the same rate as the average distribution for the discipline.

 

[** Pending Removal **]

Yes let's make it easier and write of all the women's achievements simply because there are only a few in relation to the men.....also take out the juniors, colts, vets and super vets......as they are small in relation to the masses as well.

Oh wait a moment......why don't the underachieving men buy a wig, skirt and some lippy......buy pink cartridges and come and boost our numbers.....they when we whoop your asses.....we will have done it in a bigger field of play.... :laugh:

.....just another naughty female thought with no hint of malice....just a smile.....and a thought for old Emily P. :wink:

 

[jwpzx9r]

Just a naughty thought, we ought to edit the original post to differentiate between male and female ?! Again with no hint of malice but statistically it must be harder to win a team place at say ESP given the colossal number of top flight male participants compared to their female counterparts? Am I having a blank stare moment or would reaching the top in any discipline be statistically easier due to their reduced participation ? Genuine question.

You would have to say that the stats say that as women compete in their own champs the stats would be the same really. The difficulty is the person is new to the game so you must assume they will fall some where along the curve but the fewer competitors the fewer at the top of the curve. In other words the discipline with he fewest competitors looks to offer the best chance of success but you have to make assumptions about ability.

 

[EdSolomons]

Helice- it's a 5 man team and only 6 shooters ;-)

 

[Fuzrat]

I shoot pink shells already, bald as a coot so could do with a hairpiece, a skirt you say?  where do I sign up for this competition :laugh: